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Insights

Expect Any Housing “Recession” to be Short and Shallow

4 min read

4 min read Are we on the verge of a housing recession? The Federal Reserve is intent on fighting inflation, and dampening appreciation in asset prices – including housing — is part of its plan. After torrid gains over the last several years, the residential real estate market does appear to be softening. But rather than worrying, investors should be on the lookout for buying opportunities. Because the housing “recession” is …

Real Estate Now vs 2008

4 min read

4 min read With the U.S Federal Reserve hell-bent on cooling an overheated U.S. economy, and choking off inflation, recession worries are reaching a fever pitch. The last recession of 2008-09 – “The Great Recession” – hit the housing market hard. For investors and homeowners who lived through that period, today’s recession talk is cause for anxiety.

But July of 2022 is a world away from July 2007. While a pullback/consolidation of housing prices…

Is Inflation Already Abating?

< 1 minute

< 1 minute When everybody thinks they what is going on in markets is typically when they reverse course. Perhaps that is happening now?

Consider the Positives of Negative Real Rates

Consider the Positives of Negative Real Rates

3 min read Homebuyers are freaking out about rising mortgage rates. But maybe they should be celebrating.

Since the close of 2021, the rate on the 30-year home loan spiked higher at a rate never before seen in a four-month span, surging from 3.1% to 5.25% at April’s end. It’s 5.10% as we write. For prospective home buyers who have spent the last couple years chasing rising housing prices amidst tight inventory, the mortgage rate surge likely feels very frustrating.

While the 30-year mortgage rate is still lower today than it was for any month except…

How the Ukraine Conflict May Affect Housing Prices

How the Ukraine Conflict May Affect Housing Prices

2 min read The early months of 2022 have proven to be challenging for home builders, with supply side issues remaining. Demand for housing has generally not slowed, prices continue to rise, and materials like lumber are expensive. While there have been few signs of a slow-down, the bigger focus has been on the geo-political landscape of Russia’s attack on Ukraine. What might this mean for the housing market in the US?
Realtor.com’s manager of economic research, George Ratiu, told Fortune “The impact on the U.S. housing markets from the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been muted so far.” While home prices haven’t been impacted by the conflict, the downward trickle effect of rising oil and gas prices will likely impact supply…

Rent Hikes Continue Across the United States

Rent Hikes Continue Across the United States

3 min read Across the United States, rental rates continue to rise as we move out of winter and into upcoming warmer months. In already expensive New York, as the pain of the pandemic abates, rent has risen 30% year-over-year, while growing tech hub Austin has seen rent prices rise 40% since last year.

Jessica Torres, who rents a house in Tampa, Florida, was hit with a rent increase of 15% from a move in date of just last year. “I am now…

Continued Bright Outlook for 2022

Continued Bright Outlook for 2022

2 min read In late January, Fed chair Jerome Powell announced that the central bank would not be raising interest rates, though the move is almost certainly coming at a later date, based on inflation’s effect on the economy. “It is not possible to predict with much confidence exactly what path for our policy rate …

Commercial Real Estate Experienced a Strong Rebound in 2021

Commercial Real Estate Experienced a Strong Rebound in 2021

3 min read One important lesson from the COVID crisis is that diversification across real estate sectors is as important as ever. Over the last year and a half, commercial real estate experienced a tremendous roller coaster ride of valuation dips and recoveries. While many sectors of commercial real estate have rebounded nicely from lows experienced in mid-2020, there remains a lot of uncertainty and unknowns.
For many sectors of commercial real estate, 2021 was a good year. As recently reported in the Wall Street Journal, “The FTSE NAREIT Equity REITs index was …

Inflation is Eating Away Your Cashflow

Inflation is Eating Away Your Cashflow

2 min read … That’s according to Dave Meyer, VP of Data and Analytics at BiggerPockets. In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Fed distributed over $850 billion in funds to U.S. taxpayers since the CARES Act was passed by Congress on March 25, 2020. Increased monetary supply resulted in aggressive consumer spending. However, supply chain issues and labor shortages caused an imbalance in supply and demand- evident by the historic 6.2% spike in the Consumer Price Index- the highest it’s climbed in 30 years.
In response to surging demand, the Fed is raising interest rates to prevent the economy from overheating. Mortgage rates have been rising and will continue to track the Fed. Buyers anticipating the rise are flipping seasonal trends, escalating traffic and home sales well into the typical quarterly offseason. Traditional investors, who relied on safer bets (bonds, CDs, etc.) are now pursuing higher returns with options such as real estate because they’ve realized their cash is losing value. Desperation can be a strong motivator; a quick Google search shows that over half of home offers written by realtors across …