Headlines on the inflation front were bleak this week with the consumer price index accelerating by 9.1% in June, the largest increase since 1981. However, if you look more closely at some of the underlying data, a more nuanced picture is painted where prices are beginning to fall across a variety of markets.
In looking at the five charts below, we may be seeing trend emerge. The prices of oil, corn, copper, and wheat have all fallen sharply recently while interest rates have also declined substantially.
Crude Oil is down 19% since June 7th
Corn is down 26% since April 29th
Copper is down 35% since March 4th
Wheat is down 40% since March 7th
10 Year Treasury yields have dropped from 3.48% on Jun 13th to 2.92% today, a 16% drop.
When everybody thinks they what is going on in markets is typically when they reverse course. Perhaps that is happening now?
Steve Sapourn is an active real estate investor, Aloha Capital’s co-founder, and portfolio manager. At Aloha, Steve has overseen more than 1300 real estate investor loans in 35 states. He has managed alternative investments in a variety of asset classes for over 25 years. He has deep experience in designing low-risk portfolios that reliably outperform benchmarks. Over his career, Steve has served as portfolio manager for a Fund of Funds, where he analyzed hundreds of alternative investment strategies. In addition, he has developed and implemented quantitative trading strategies in the futures, stock, and volatility markets. Steve’s long and diverse career benefits Aloha’s investors.